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Online-Kapitalmarktausblick von Metzler Capital Markets - 14.12.2022

Von Krise zu Krise – Hoffnungsschimmer am Horizont?

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2022 war deutlich turbulenter als man es vor Jahresfrist erwartet hatte: Russlands Angriff auf die Ukraine, die Gasknappheit, deutlich steigende Inflationszahlen, Zentralbanken, die massiv die Zinsen erhöhten, und eine selten gesehene Volatilität an den Kapitalmärkten, insbesondere bei Renten.

Was erwartet uns 2023? Das war die zentrale Frage des Online-Kapitalmarktausblicks von Metzler Capital Markets, der in diesem Jahr auf besonders großes Interesse stieß: Knapp 75 Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmer folgten der Veranstaltung an den Bildschirmen, darunter zahlreiche Vertreter von Sparkassen, Banken, Versicherungen, Versorgungswerken, Pensionskassen und Asset-Managern.

Ein erneut herausforderndes Jahr stehe bevor mit Blick auf Konjunktur und Inflation, meint Eugen Keller, Head of FI/FX Research. Für das erste Quartal erwartet er eine Rezession, in den folgenden Quartalen sieht er dann eine Rückkehr zu Wachstum. Hohe Inflationsraten dürften uns zwar über das gesamte Jahr begleiten. Jedoch gebe es laut Keller auch Chancen, dass die Inflation von den derzeitigen Hochständen zurückgeht, in den USA wahrscheinlich deutlicher ausgeprägt als in der Eurozone.

Auf den Staatsanleihemärkten sieht Sebastian Sachs, FI/FX Analyst, eine ruhigere Marktentwicklung als im vergangenen Jahr mit seinen teils massiven Tagesschwankungen. In den kommenden Monaten müssten Anleger sich aber auf deutlich höhere Renditeniveaus bei Staatsanleihen auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks einstellen. Der US-Dollar dürfte auch 2023 den Devisenmarkt dominieren. Allerdings geht Sachs von einer höheren Volatilität aus, da die Einflussfaktoren auf den Währungshandel nicht mehr so eindeutig sein dürften wie im vergangenen Jahr.

Für Corporate Bonds rechnet FI/FX Analystin Juliane Rack mit einer Normalisierung. Im ersten Quartal geht sie aufgrund der rezessiven konjunkturellen Lage noch von erhöhten Spreads aus. Doch die erwartete Erholung der Wirtschaft im Laufe des Jahres sollte sich auch in den Risikoaufschlägen widerspiegeln. Insbesondere dürften sich Branchen positiv entwickeln, die von den höheren Zinsen, der Erholung nach der Pandemie sowie den höheren Rohstoffpreisen profitieren.

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