We use cookies in order to provide you with an optimal website experience. These include cookies that are technically or legally necessary for operating our site and controlling our commercial business objectives as well as cookies that are used for anonymous statistical purposes, monitoring comfort settings or displaying personalized content. The decision as to which types of cookies to allow is up to you. Please note that, based on your settings, some features of our website might not be accessible for you. For more information, see Details and Settings.


These cookies are absolutely vital for operating our site. They are required for security reasons or are necessary from a legal point of view.
*They cannot be deactivated.

In order to improve our website for you further, we collect anonymous data for statistical and analytical purposes.

These cookies are intended to facilitate use of our website for you. Your settings can be saved for 30 days.

Promotional material published by B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. KGaA - 1.10.2019

The German auto industry should soon be able to put the mega-crisis behind it

“The mood in the industry is bad,” says Jürgen Pieper, Director of Research and Senior Advisor at Metzler Capital Markets, of the German auto industry. A massive drop in demand in China and strong political headwinds have triggered a record-breaking wave of profit warnings in 2019. The climate change debate is also increasing pressure on the auto industry. SUVs, for example, are currently undergoing a massive image transformation, shifting away from the stylish, practical family car to the irresponsible CO2 slinger. In its climate package adopted on September 20, the German government decided, among other things, to impose a CO2 price tag on fossil fuels like diesel and petrol, thus making it more expensive to operate a car – and dieselgate is not even over yet.

All signs are therefore pointing to a crisis, or rather a mega-crisis. This became apparent at this year's International Motor Show in Frankfurt/Main, which was accompanied by numerous protests and demonstrations by climate change activists. The number of visitors also dropped, as did the number of international exhibitors. Nevertheless, Pieper does not believe the German auto industry will remain a crisis industry in the long term. “As early as 2020, I expect a mood of optimism among OEMs and suppliers. Both electric cars and hybrid vehicles will then forge ahead.”  Years of rising investments in further developments should lead to a boost in innovation. “In the medium term, high-quality, well-managed and soundly financed OEMs and suppliers are good investments,” Pieper is convinced. Despite the far-reaching crisis in the global auto industry, Pieper sees encouraging signs for 2020/21.

  • In North America, demand for cars should pick up in 2020, which is an election year in the US. 
  • In China, the world’s most important auto market, demand should at least stabilize as the market is still far from saturated. 
  • Alongside battery-driven electric cars, hybrids will probably make a breakthrough in the coming years. In view of their complex drive technology, this will boost the prospects of many suppliers.
  • A phase of very significantly increasing R&D expenses in the industry lasting several years is gradually coming to an end. New technologies are reaching market maturity, so cost pressure should decline considerably from 2020 onwards.
  • Many companies in the sector have introduced efficiency programs to counter the crisis that should bear fruit from 2020 onwards. In addition, there have been a comparatively large number of changes at board level, providing opportunities for a promising repositioning.

We would be glad to send additional press material upon request to any interested journalist who was unable to attend the press workshop.

Press contact


More articles

This document constitutes promotional material published by B. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. KGaA (Metzler).

It is based on information which is generally available and which Metzler believes to be fundamentally reliable. Metzler has not verified the accuracy or completeness of the information and provides no warranty or representation in respect of the accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, estimates, recommendations and forecasts contained in this document. Neither Metzler nor any of its shareholders or employees may be held liable for damages or any other disadvantage suffered due to inaccurate or incomplete information, opinions, estimates, recommendations or forecasts resulting from the distribution or use of this document or in connection with this document in any way.      

This document is provided for advertising purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy securities, other financial instruments or other investment instruments. This document does not meet the legal requirements for ensuring impartiality of investment recommendations pursuant to Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) in conjunction with Section 20 (1) of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of April 16, 2014 regarding market abuse (Market Abuse Directive) to which Articles 4 and 6 of the Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of the Commission of March 9, 2016 apply in addition to the Market Abuse Directive. Metzler does not act as investment advisor or portfolio manager in preparing this document. This document does not constitute personal investment advice.

The information, opinions, estimates, recommendations and forecasts contained in this document reflect the personal views of the author at the time of publication on the financial instruments or issuers that form the subject of this document and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Metzler, the issuer or third parties. They may also be subject to change on account of future events and developments. Metzler has no obligation to amend, supplement or update this document or to otherwise notify recipients in the event that any information, opinions, estimates, recommendations or forecasts stated herein should change or subsequently become inaccurate, incomplete or misleading. The model calculations contained in this document, if any, are examples showing the possible performance and are based on various assumptions (e.g. regarding earnings and volatility). The actual performance cannot be guaranteed, warranted or assured.

This document may not be copied, duplicated, forwarded to third parties or otherwise published, in whole or in part, without Metzler’s prior written consent. Metzler reserves all copyrights and rights of use, including those relating to electronic media. Insofar as Metzler provides hyperlinks to websites of the companies cited in research publications, this does not mean that Metzler confirms, recommends or warrants any data contained on the linked sites or data which can be accessed from such sites. Metzler accepts no liability for links or data, nor for any consequences which may arise as a result of following the links and/or using the data.

This document is subject to the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany. Venue of jurisdiction for any disputes shall be Frankfurt am Main, Germany.