Edgar Walk, Chief Economist Metzler Asset Management, is optimistic about 2019. According to his assessments, leading indicators show that the upswing in the USA is still intact. Therefore, an important prerequisite for the global economy to remain on the growth path is fulfilled. In this climate, Walk believes there will be good investment opportunities in emerging economies in 2019, but also on Europe’s equity markets. Investments in Chinese A-shares appear attractive to him in the medium term. Furthermore, Walk considers catastrophic developments to be extremely unlikely for the global economy and financial markets in 2019.
Read more about Walk’s predictions in his market:update Annual Outlook for 2019.
Edgar Walk, Chief Economist at Metzler Asset Management, comments regularly on various topics surrounding capital markets, the economy and monetary policy. Read about Walk’s assessments in quarterly and annual capital markets outlooks. Under market:update Special Topics, you can read about background topics, markets, regions and forecasts. In addition, asia:insight offers insight into the economy in Asia.
market:update Special Topics
Update of medium-term total return forecasts
It’s possible that economic cycles have become longer since World War II. Edgar Walk, Chief Economist at Metzler Asset Management, has therefore supplemented his conservative seven-year scenario for total return forecasts for equities and bonds with a progressive 14-year scenario. For virtually all asset classes, higher returns can be derived from the progressive scenario because this scenario assumes a slower correction of the overvaluation of many investment assets.
Read more in Walk's market:update – return perspectives.
market:update Quarterly Outlook
Capital Markets Outlook for the 1st quarter 2019
Edgar Walk, Chief Economist at Metzler Asset Management, believes short-term developments on the capital markets are shaped by a number of uncertainties. For example, the simmering trade conflict between the USA and China, China’s questionable return to a dynamic growth path, the remaining possibility of a hard Brexit, and Italy's anti-growth economic policy all stand in the way of stable development on the global equity and bond markets in the short term. However, if his baseline scenario of moderately waning global economic growth combined with steady inflation should occur, 2019 could turn out to be a positive year for equities with returns in the double digits.
Read more about Walk’s assessments and forecasts in his Capital Markets Outlook for the first quarter.
asia:insight – Japan’s equity markets
Japan’s equity markets have been on the rise for some time now, so that the record highs from 1989 appear to be within reach again. However, for the Japanese index Nikkei 225 to set a new record in the coming years, a number of prerequisites must be met. Not only must the upward trend in corporate earnings and profitability continue, but far-reaching changes in dealings with shareholders’ issues must also continue. In addition, the Bank of Japan shall remain on course, and companies must succeed in further strengthening their market positions in the important export markets of Asia and the USA. Last but not least, foreign investors will decide whether the Nikkei 225 really has a viable chance of reaching its record high from 1989.
Read more in the latest edition of Metzler’s asia:insight.
joined Metzler in 2000. As Chief Economist in the Asset Management division, he is responsible for formulating our global economic outlook. Due to his close cooperation with the portfolio management, he focuses on capital market themes as well as on global economic analyses. Mr. Walk holds a master’s degree in economics from the University of Tübingen in Germany and spent a semester at the University of Doshisha in Kyoto, Japan. In addition, he completed the program “Advanced Studies in International Economic Policy Research“ at the Institute of World Economy in Kiel, Germany.