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ZOOM: Aktuelle Branchen- und Marktthemen im Fokus - 14.3.2024 - Pal Skirta

E-Mobility verliert an Fahrt

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E-Auto lädt auf

Die Zeit drängt: Ab 2035 sollen in Europa keine Pkw mit Verbrennermotor mehr neu zugelassen werden. Wo steht die europäische Autoindustrie in Sachen Übergang zur E-Mobility, bei der Batterietechnologie und der Produktion von E-Autos für den Massenmarkt? Drei Fragen an Branchenexperten Pal Skirta.

 

Eins
Ab 2035 sollen in Europa keine Pkw mit Verbrennermotor mehr neu zugelassen werden. Wohin geht die Reise bei der Antriebstechnik – Elektro, Hybrid, E-Fuels, Wasserstoff?

Wir gehen davon aus, dass die Elektromobilität sich langfristig als vorherrschende Antriebstechnologie etablieren wird. Jedoch deuten neueste Aussagen aus Politik und oberster Führungsebene einiger deutscher Automobilhersteller darauf, dass der Übergang zu rein elektrischer Mobilität möglicherweise länger dauern könnte als ursprünglich geplant. Unserer Ansicht nach lässt sich das zurückführen auf die noch nicht ausgereifte Batterietechnologie, den unzureichenden Ausbaugrad der Ladeinfrastruktur und die Preisunterschiede zwischen Verbrennern und Elektroautos. 

Wir erwarten, dass das Tempo des Übergangs zunehmend ins Zentrum des gesellschaftlichen und politischen Diskurses rücken wird. Denn in Europa scheint die Nachfrage bei den „Early Adopters“ – also Menschen, die technische Neuerungen deutlich früher als die breite Masse nutzen – derzeit weitgehend befriedigt zu sein. Die überwiegende Mehrheit der Konsumenten wird Elektromobilität nur durch eine geschickte Preispolitik und eine Optimierung des E-Angebots akzeptieren. Wir halten auch die Entwicklung von politischen Lösungen für denkbar, die den deutschen Automobilherstellern mehr Zeit und Flexibilität in Bezug auf Entwicklung, Forschung und Investitionen gewähren könnten. 

Was E-Fuels und Wasserstoff anbelangt, sind wir der Auffassung, dass sich die Transportindustrie damit nicht umfassend dekarbonisieren lässt. Wir gehen davon aus, dass diese Antriebstechnologien hauptsächlich in der Schifffahrt und Luftfahrt eingesetzt werden, wo sich Batterien weniger eignen. E-Fuels könnten aber konventionellen Kraftstoffen beigemischt werden, um den CO2-Fußabdruck bestehender Flotten zu reduzieren.

Zwei
Die chinesischen Autobauer entwickeln massentaugliche E-Fahrzeuge, während die deutsche Autoindustrie im Premiumsegment rumzuckelt. Wird sie es schaffen, sich gegen die Konkurrenz aus Fernost zu behaupten?

Mittelfristig gehen wir davon aus, dass sich der Spruch „Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich stärker“ ein weiteres Mal für die deutschen OEMs bewahrheiten wird. Die Erfahrungen aus den 1980er-Jahren, als japanische und südkoreanische Automobilhersteller im europäischen Markt aufstiegen, zeigen, dass der ausländische Wettbewerb die deutschen Hersteller dazu anspornt, ihre Produkte durch technologische Innovationen zu verbessern. Derzeit verzeichnen wir höhere Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung – die Industrie ist bestrebt, ihren technologischen Rückstand gegenüber den chinesischen Wettbewerbern sowohl bei der Elektromobilität als auch der Software aufzuholen. Die Pläne der Branche stimmen uns positiv für die mittelfristige Wettbewerbsfähigkeit heimischer Hersteller, auch im E-Massenmarkt. 

Dennoch dürfte die nähere Zukunft Herausforderungen mit sich bringen, besonders beim Wettbewerb in China, wo die deutschen Automobilhersteller etwa ein Drittel ihrer Absätze erzielen. Daher sind wir der Ansicht, dass ein  möglicherweise später einsetzendes Verbrennerverbot in Europa den europäischen Herstellern zumindest auf dem heimischen Markt eine Atempause ermöglichen würde und den asiatischen Wettbewerbsdruck im europäischen Massenmarkt mildern könnte.

Drei
Bei der Wende hin zum Elektroantrieb ist eine fortschrittliche Batterietechnologie unabdingbar. Wie positioniert sich die deutsche Automobilbranche hier?

Die Batterie ist für den Erfolg der Elektromobilität entscheidend, da sie sowohl ein bedeutender Kostenfaktor ist als auch eine wesentliche Determinante für Fahrzeugqualität und Kundenzufriedenheit. Wir gehen davon aus, dass sich in der Mitte des Jahrzehnts ein Entwicklungssprung in der Batterietechnologie aller großen  deutschen Automobilhersteller abzeichnen wird: Eine verbesserte Leistung, kürzere Ladezeiten und größere Reichweiten dürften zu einer breiteren Akzeptanz von Elektrofahrzeugen bei den Verbrauchern führen. Sicherlich wird die Technologie dann wahrscheinlich auch noch nicht vollständig ausgereift sein – es handelt sich hier  eher um eine Evolution als eine Revolution. 

Dies trifft auch auf die Produktionskapazitäten für Batterien zu. Die deutsche Automobilindustrie investiert derzeit erheblich in die eigene Batterieproduktion, um die Abhängigkeit von chinesischen Zulieferern zu verringern. Wir sind jedoch der Meinung, dass sich dadurch die Verfügbarkeit von Batterien nur begrenzt verbessern lässt, da China die vorangehenden Schritte in der Wertschöpfungskette kontrolliert, beispielweise die Gewinnung und Verarbeitung der notwendigen Rohstoffe. Daher halten wir die pan-europäischen Initiativen zur Risikoreduzierung bei der Versorgung mit kritischen Rohstoffen für äußerst wichtig.

Pal Skirta
Pal Skirta

Mobility , Metzler Capital Markets

 Pal Skirta ist seit 2023 bei Metzler tätig. Im Geschäftsfeld Capital Markets ist er Analyst für den Bereich Mobility. Vor seiner Tätigkeit bei Metzler war er Graduate Analyst bei der Berenberg Bank in London. Herr Skirta erwarb 2022 den Master of Finance als Stipendiat der Stiftung der deutschen Wirtschaft sowie der Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. Während seines Studiums absolvierte er Praktika unter anderem bei Ernst & Young, der Commerzbank, Kepler Chevreux und Lupus Alpha.

Pal.Skirta@metzler.com

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